07L: Hurricane Gustav

Jim Leonard · 08-22-2008, 10:03 AM

Finally, this morning it appears that there is some development beginning to take place centered around 10N and about 50W. There is a large complex system taking shape in that area. Look for slow organization in that area as it moves WNW in the coming days. The ecmwf is still showing a big storm brewing from this disturbance. The past two model runs show a strange track from the SE Caribbean across Puerto Rico and Hispanola toward the NW into the Bahamas, we'll have to see if this scenario is picked up on the other models in the coming days.

rdale · 08-22-2008, 10:19 AM

Is this the same system last week?

http://stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=17742

Warren Faidley · 08-22-2008, 03:04 PM

Yea, the model runs are now very consistent with eventually upgrading this system to hurricane status and routing it to the south of Cuba by Wednesday of next week.

Look out!

Warren

MClarkson · 08-23-2008, 08:59 AM

I do not like the northerly shear progged by the GFS around the ~hispanolia/cuba. Hopefully it goes away.

Paul Austin · 08-23-2008, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rdale

Is this the same system last week?

http://stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=17742

Yeah, I was completely wrong about the shear this system would encounter, but it's made a nice comeback.

Mark Sudduth · 08-23-2008, 04:39 PM

Looks like Euro off again for some reason. And GFS, nothing there either. But- we saw cat-5 Felix form in the face of little global model support. We shall see.

Jesse V. Bass III · 08-24-2008, 11:39 AM

euro is back today though... pretty good sized looking hurricane across cuba and up the east coast of florida just along the coast or just offshore then making landfall in georgia... been showing this every few runs or so... gfs, shows nothing.... does develop the wave coming off africa now.. but not 94L..

Chris Hayes · 08-24-2008, 06:08 PM

94L is looking better defined thisevening with outflow bands starting to appear on the southern fringe, and cloud tops cooling more and more. Wouldnt be surprised to see this be a depression tommorow if this continues.

aaron.burkham · 08-25-2008, 02:11 AM

Looking alot better organized! Really starting to take shape, i would call this a TD right now by the looks, does anybody have links to other current models besides NHC, because i would really like some more info and forcasts to track this storm, i have nothing else to do, even at work i spend more time tracking storms than i do doing my job

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_at...area1#contents

Really looking great!

Jim Leonard · 08-25-2008, 08:46 AM

The satellite presentation this morning shows a rapidly developing tropical storm. Im sure the report from the recon flight this afternoon will come back with at least a 50kt tropical storm Gustav.

08-22-2008, 10:03 AM	#1
Jim Leonard Member Join Date: May 2006 Location: Florida Keys Posts: 218 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	07L: Hurricane Gustav Finally, this morning it appears that there is some development beginning to take place centered around 10N and about 50W. There is a large complex system taking shape in that area. Look for slow organization in that area as it moves WNW in the coming days. The ecmwf is still showing a big storm brewing from this disturbance. The past two model runs show a strange track from the SE Caribbean across Puerto Rico and Hispanola toward the NW into the Bahamas, we'll have to see if this scenario is picked up on the other models in the coming days. __________________ http://www.cyclonejim.com Last edited by Sam Sagnella; 08-25-2008 at 02:19 PM. Reason: Change the thread title

08-24-2008, 11:39 AM	#7
Jesse V. Bass III Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Virginia Posts: 34 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	euro is back today though... pretty good sized looking hurricane across cuba and up the east coast of florida just along the coast or just offshore then making landfall in georgia... been showing this every few runs or so... gfs, shows nothing.... does develop the wave coming off africa now.. but not 94L.. __________________ Jesse V. Bass III http://www.vastormphoto.com

08-24-2008, 06:08 PM	#8
Chris Hayes Member Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Canton, Ohio Posts: 985 Thanks: 1 Thanked 4 Times in 4 Posts	94L is looking better defined thisevening with outflow bands starting to appear on the southern fringe, and cloud tops cooling more and more. Wouldnt be surprised to see this be a depression tommorow if this continues. __________________ "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." - -- Thomas Jefferson http://www.facebook.com/Ohiosuprcell

08-25-2008, 08:46 AM	#10
Jim Leonard Member Join Date: May 2006 Location: Florida Keys Posts: 218 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	The satellite presentation this morning shows a rapidly developing tropical storm. Im sure the report from the recon flight this afternoon will come back with at least a 50kt tropical storm Gustav. __________________ http://www.cyclonejim.com

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08-22-2008, 10:19 AM	#2
rdale Member Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Lansing, MI Posts: 4,228 Thanks: 138 Thanked 138 Times in 73 Posts	Is this the same system last week? http://stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=17742

08-22-2008, 03:04 PM	#3
Warren Faidley Stormtrack supporter Join Date: May 2006 Location: Mos Isley Space Port Posts: 360 Thanks: 5 Thanked 53 Times in 16 Posts	Yea, the model runs are now very consistent with eventually upgrading this system to hurricane status and routing it to the south of Cuba by Wednesday of next week. Look out! Warren

08-23-2008, 08:59 AM	#4
MClarkson Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: KTUS Posts: 515 Thanks: 4 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	I do not like the northerly shear progged by the GFS around the ~hispanolia/cuba. Hopefully it goes away.

08-23-2008, 04:39 PM	#6
Mark Sudduth Member Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Near Wilmington, NC Posts: 81 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Looks like Euro off again for some reason. And GFS, nothing there either. But- we saw cat-5 Felix form in the face of little global model support. We shall see.

08-25-2008, 02:11 AM	#9
aaron.burkham Member Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Tucson AZ Posts: 38 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Looking alot better organized! Really starting to take shape, i would call this a TD right now by the looks, does anybody have links to other current models besides NHC, because i would really like some more info and forcasts to track this storm, i have nothing else to do, even at work i spend more time tracking storms than i do doing my job http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_at...area1#contents Really looking great!