Guesses for Winter 2009-10 - Page 2

David Drummond · 10-06-2009, 10:53 PM

Article from the Lubbock NWS regarding how past El Nino events have affected our winters.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/?n=news-2009821_elnino

Quote:

According to some of the computer models (graph toward the top), it appears that a moderate to strong El Niño episode is likely this upcoming winter. Hence, there may be a greater than average chance at the South Plains being wetter (and perhaps snowier) than normal this winter, particularly if a strong El Niño does develop. The official long range forecast for the United States reflects this, and can be found at the Climate Prediction Center by CLICKING HERE.
The development of El Niño is also sometimes linked with cooler than normal conditions across the southeast United State during the winter, but the correlation between temperatures and El Niño is relatively weak for the South Plains. The current long range forecast from the Climate Prediction Center for the South Plains calls for equal chances to a slightly greater than average chance of winter temperatures being above average.

Jason Bolt · 10-07-2009, 08:47 AM

Just saw that Loveland ski area is opening today, the earliest opening in 40 years so they say. Not sure that bodes well for those of us hoping for a mild boring winter.

Mike Hollingshead · 10-07-2009, 01:36 PM

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P...SNOW_120HR.gif

That is pretty funny considering just how early it is.

Chris Carter · 10-07-2009, 02:45 PM

So much for a shot at some fall severe storms for the northern plains. I was atleast hoping for an oppurtunity at some tornadoes in October.

Jonathan Behle · 10-16-2009, 11:54 AM

For what its worth,

NOAA has issued its winter outlook.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...eroutlook.html

I personally tend to think they are overplaying the el nino up a touch as they often seem to do but atleast for once they are predicting an area of the country to actually have below normal temperatures.

My guesses on this winter are that we will see a few big ice storms pan in the Southeast and Ohio Valleys. The Pacific Northwest will probably continue its trend of milder and drier then average weather. But a few polar outbreaks are going to still hit even with the el nino east of the Rockies. For the US as a whole, Id expect a slightly more active pattern then last year and slightly milder temperatures but I dont think this winter will be extreme in one way or another.

Rob Wadsworth · 10-16-2009, 04:14 PM

We had a dying Typhoon 'Melor' just pass thru the central coast of CA last week, and it dropped between 3-6 inches of precip. As a rule, we never get any appreciable precip until/around the 31st of October. I can say that because I've lived in this same location since dirt was new (some 40 years+). The last time we had such conditions was in 1998, so my guess is that it is definetly going to be wetter on the CA coast this year. Whenever we had early rains, it almost always ended up with large amounts of precip occuring. Which is fine; as CA NEEDS the rain this year.

Incidentally, the last time we had a tornado on the West Coast/central CA was in 1998. Am I hoping for a bit of severe weather because El Nino may go to the modeate/strong status? You bet!

I looked at the NOAA projection for this year as supplied from the previous post. Thanks for providing it here - much appreciated!

Edit: I think it raises one particular question in my mind. If El Nino is going to be a major player this year; how will it skew the distribution pattern of severe storms/tornadic activity on the Great Plains this coming Spring? Will we see less of it on the Plains, and more of it twards the E Coast and the South?
Just though I'd ask...

steve sherrod · 10-22-2009, 01:11 PM

Rob, you pose a good question! I have lived in the Wichita area all my 43 years. I am going to review that past records of precipitation and the following years conditions. I believe Davies has done some work on this. I will look up who has worked on this and post it later.. Usually if we get alot of precip in the winter the fields have more moisture for the following spring and we get stronger storms.. Usually west of Wichita out around Liberal and east to Pratt, and north up towards Hay and Salina.. We'll see if that pans out.

czenzel · 11-01-2009, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by steve sherrod

Rob, you pose a good question! I have lived in the Wichita area all my 43 years. I am going to review that past records of precipitation and the following years conditions. I believe Davies has done some work on this. I will look up who has worked on this and post it later.. Usually if we get alot of precip in the winter the fields have more moisture for the following spring and we get stronger storms.. Usually west of Wichita out around Liberal and east to Pratt, and north up towards Hay and Salina.. We'll see if that pans out.

In Florida there also can be a Tornado outbreak with El Nino. The TV Stations are reporting it will be a harsh winter and they said that when similar weather patterns like this happened before that they had the strongest tornados.

Jason Foster · 11-02-2009, 02:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by czenzel

In Florida there also can be a Tornado outbreak with El Nino. The TV Stations are reporting it will be a harsh winter and they said that when similar weather patterns like this happened before that they had the strongest tornados.

This was actually discussed in the NOAA Winter Weather Outlook. SE could see more severe weather this year.

John Vandehei · 11-02-2009, 09:54 AM

It's well known that an El Nino typically spells a mild winter for much of the northern US, and wetter weather for California and the Gulf Coast region. One thing nobody has mentioned is the possible effect of the deep solar minimum that's currently occurring. There has been a historical correlation between periods of low sunspot activity and cooler weather. The Little Ice age corresponding with the Maunder Minimum is probably the best known example. The sun has currently been in a quieter than normal lull in sunspot activity since about 2007. Last winter in the Northern Hemisphere was colder than normal in most areas. Also, if I recall, ski resorts in the Southern Hemisphere opened up three to four weeks earlier than normal last winter (2009). Now that winter is approaching on this side of the equator, we see examples of an early winter such as Loveland Basin opening up early, plus early snows occurring in the European Alps. So I have to wonder, what effect could this have on El Nino? Could the northern US, which is typically warmer in El Nino years, be closer to normal in terms of temperature?

10-07-2009, 01:36 PM	#13
Mike Hollingshead Member Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Blair, Nebraska Posts: 2,916	http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P...SNOW_120HR.gif That is pretty funny considering just how early it is. __________________ http://www.extremeinstability.com

10-07-2009, 02:45 PM	#14
Chris Carter Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Lincoln, NE Posts: 51	So much for a shot at some fall severe storms for the northern plains. I was atleast hoping for an oppurtunity at some tornadoes in October. __________________ Storm Chasing can sometimes be like sex, its a painstaking, arduous trip that seems to go on and on forever and just when you think things are going your way, nothing happens. But when you score, its makes all the trying worthwhile.

10-16-2009, 04:14 PM	#16
Rob Wadsworth Member Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Cupertino CA Storm Lake IA Posts: 589	We had a dying Typhoon 'Melor' just pass thru the central coast of CA last week, and it dropped between 3-6 inches of precip. As a rule, we never get any appreciable precip until/around the 31st of October. I can say that because I've lived in this same location since dirt was new (some 40 years+). The last time we had such conditions was in 1998, so my guess is that it is definetly going to be wetter on the CA coast this year. Whenever we had early rains, it almost always ended up with large amounts of precip occuring. Which is fine; as CA NEEDS the rain this year. Incidentally, the last time we had a tornado on the West Coast/central CA was in 1998. Am I hoping for a bit of severe weather because El Nino may go to the modeate/strong status? You bet! I looked at the NOAA projection for this year as supplied from the previous post. Thanks for providing it here - much appreciated! Edit: I think it raises one particular question in my mind. If El Nino is going to be a major player this year; how will it skew the distribution pattern of severe storms/tornadic activity on the Great Plains this coming Spring? Will we see less of it on the Plains, and more of it twards the E Coast and the South? Just though I'd ask... __________________ Rob Wadsworth / KI6USW-Also on CB Ch.20/AM Handle: 'Triple Four'/'444' You don't know what will happen tomorrow. What is life? You are a mist that is seen for a moment and then disappears. -James 4:14 http://picasaweb.google.com/trebor171/StormChaseIowa# Last edited by Rob Wadsworth; 10-16-2009 at 08:55 PM. Reason: content

10-22-2009, 01:11 PM	#17
steve sherrod Member Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 16	2010 spring tornado outlook Rob, you pose a good question! I have lived in the Wichita area all my 43 years. I am going to review that past records of precipitation and the following years conditions. I believe Davies has done some work on this. I will look up who has worked on this and post it later.. Usually if we get alot of precip in the winter the fields have more moisture for the following spring and we get stronger storms.. Usually west of Wichita out around Liberal and east to Pratt, and north up towards Hay and Salina.. We'll see if that pans out.

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10-07-2009, 08:47 AM	#12
Jason Bolt Stormtrack supporter Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Kansas Posts: 161	Just saw that Loveland ski area is opening today, the earliest opening in 40 years so they say. Not sure that bodes well for those of us hoping for a mild boring winter.

10-16-2009, 11:54 AM	#15
Jonathan Behle Member Join Date: May 2007 Location: KS Posts: 34	For what its worth, NOAA has issued its winter outlook. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...eroutlook.html I personally tend to think they are overplaying the el nino up a touch as they often seem to do but atleast for once they are predicting an area of the country to actually have below normal temperatures. My guesses on this winter are that we will see a few big ice storms pan in the Southeast and Ohio Valleys. The Pacific Northwest will probably continue its trend of milder and drier then average weather. But a few polar outbreaks are going to still hit even with the el nino east of the Rockies. For the US as a whole, Id expect a slightly more active pattern then last year and slightly milder temperatures but I dont think this winter will be extreme in one way or another.

11-02-2009, 09:54 AM	#20
John Vandehei Member Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Galesburg, MI Posts: 11	It's well known that an El Nino typically spells a mild winter for much of the northern US, and wetter weather for California and the Gulf Coast region. One thing nobody has mentioned is the possible effect of the deep solar minimum that's currently occurring. There has been a historical correlation between periods of low sunspot activity and cooler weather. The Little Ice age corresponding with the Maunder Minimum is probably the best known example. The sun has currently been in a quieter than normal lull in sunspot activity since about 2007. Last winter in the Northern Hemisphere was colder than normal in most areas. Also, if I recall, ski resorts in the Southern Hemisphere opened up three to four weeks earlier than normal last winter (2009). Now that winter is approaching on this side of the equator, we see examples of an early winter such as Loveland Basin opening up early, plus early snows occurring in the European Alps. So I have to wonder, what effect could this have on El Nino? Could the northern US, which is typically warmer in El Nino years, be closer to normal in terms of temperature?