Thoughts on activity for 2010?

[Randy Bowers]

When it comes to both state of the gulf and soil moisture, I HIGHLY recommend going back and reading Rich Thompson's post (post #27). Also, refer to his post (#17) in the 2010 Capping Inversion thread, where he talks about the importance of long fetches from the Caribbean and southern Gulf region.

[richhorodner]

March 1st El Nino update: Recently, heat content anomalies increased again in association with an oceanic Kelvin wave.

[Greg McLaughlin]

Originally Posted by Randy Bowers

where he talks about the importance of long fetches from the Caribbean and southern Gulf region.

I have seen this first hand. The day of the Lone Grove, OK tornado (Feb 10, 2009) I was on a cruise ship in the southern GOM. We had 6-8' waves and strong southerly winds which were feeding into the surface low developing in OK/KS. It was quite impressive to say the least.

[Paul Sherman]

Still looking quiet for the forseeable in the Plains although Saturday could get Interesting across the Gulf States if one or two Models verify.

I wonder if any other years have started with this amount of activity and if so what were the April-June periods like in these years and did the ENSO Phase look similar.

I guess if it stays the same by Mid April a "Future of the Season" thread will be started

Paul S

[Michael O'Keeffe]

The 12z GFS is still showing a few systems moving through the last few days of March and first few days of April. I think we just need to wait another week or two before we will see things change for the better. Besides it seems that the later the start of the season the better the year with the exception of 2008 I mean I don't know about everybody else but I'd rather have the peak of the season in May and June when storms move slower and are further west anyway.

[MatthewCarman]

Originally Posted by Paul Sherman

I wonder if any other years have started with this amount of activity and if so what were the April-June periods like in these years and did the ENSO Phase look similar.

I guess if it stays the same by Mid April a "Future of the Season" thread will be started

Paul S

Are you wanting to know if there was other years that started out pretty active? If so 2008 started off with a bang with tornado outbreaks in December, January, February etc. 2006 I think was active for March and April and in 2007 there was a mini tornado outbreak in Kansas and Missouri for February and the March 28, 2007 tornado fest.

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Matthew

No I meant are there any other years where it has been soooo painfully slow, Feb had 1 Tornado and I can only think of the Oklahoma (Elk City) Tornado really for March atm in the Traditional Tor Alley.

Think i read somewhere that 1982 might be similar - Just wondering if exceptionally Slow starts might be better for Late April - May and June.

Regards

Paul S

[MatthewCarman]

I see. This winter has been pretty quite in terms of Severe Weather and March has so far only had two EF2 tornadoes and a few other tornadoes. (OK and AR)

[David Goines]

This is an interesting graph of tornadoes by year since 2005.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torngraph-big.png

Notice we're on track with 2005 which has been the lowest numbered season for tornadoes in the past 5 years. Eeek!

[Chris Hayes]

Yeah, we are on a 2005 track. However, 2005 had several good chase days in it. Only reason it sucked for me was I took my chasecation in May rather than June like I should have. The high risk day of June 4, 2005 was my last chase day. Had I taken my chasecation in the first 2 or 3 weeks of June I would have had a good year simply becuase of a couple select days. 2006 on the other hand. . . .