Thoughts on activity for 2010?

[Mark Sudduth]

For those who like the El Nino, you're in luck with it hanging on for a little while longer at least. The SOI has really tanked as of late with all indices going quite a bit below zero. Thus, a solid westerly wind burst should commence and prolong the warming for the next several weeks. It is amazing how you can track these things now with fairly decent accuracy. Not unitl we see the SOI really come up will there be much reason to believe the El Nino is about to exit. Would also expect a decent severe weather season in FL come February if 2010 acts like 1998 did.

[Bart_Comstock]

1998 was one of the deadliest tornado season for the nation during the last decade and that was during a el nino but that el nino just so happened to be the strongest on record which our current one most likely will not get to be nearly as strong.

[Jason Boggs]

Here is a little tidbit of info I found on the AMA NWS. Here is one major reason why the dryline raced east on possible storm days in 06 and we chased wildfires instead of tornadoes. Take note of 2005 precip.

2001....18.69
2002....18.25
2003....13.42
2004....26.31
2005....15.00 about 5 inches below normal
2006....21.88
2007....22.50
2008....22.44

Also, here are some total monthly precip reports from early 06.
Jan- 0.03 inches
Feb- 0.05 inches
Mar- 1.56 inches
Apr- 0.23 inches

[Chris Hayes]

Originally Posted by Jason Boggs

Here is a little tidbit of info I found on the AMA NWS. Here is one major reason why the dryline raced east on possible storm days in 06 and we chased wildfires instead of tornadoes. Take note of 2005 precip.

2001....18.69
2002....18.25
2003....13.42
2004....26.31
2005....15.00 about 5 inches below normal
2006....21.88
2007....22.50
2008....22.44

Also, here are some total monthly precip reports from early 06.
Jan- 0.03 inches
Feb- 0.05 inches
Mar- 1.56 inches
Apr- 0.23 inches

I like those precip stats, Jason. I love chasing in the western plains. Any similar info from DDC or GLD?

[Jason Boggs]

Originally Posted by Chris Hayes

I like those precip stats, Jason. I love chasing in the western plains. Any similar info from DDC or GLD?

Here is a link to some precip stats from Ford county that I found.

PRECIP STATS

[Jason Harris]

Local NWS at Melbourne has a pdf for download entitled: "Increased Chance of Above Normal rainfall & severe weather this winter and early spring."

THE TOP TWO DEADLIEST TORNADO
OUTBREAKS IN FLORIDA OCCURRED DURING EL NINO EVENTS. THE FIRST OCCURRED DURING THE
STRONGEST EL NINO TO IMPACT THE AREA IN 1997 TO 1998 WHERE SEVERAL EF3 TORNADOES
...WITH WINDS UP TO 165 MPH...MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NIGHT OF
FEBRUARY 22 TO 23...KILLING 42 PEOPLE MAINLY IN THE KISSIMMEE AREA. THE SECOND
OUTBREAK OCCURRED DURING THE MOST RECENT AND MUCH WEAKER EL NINO TO IMPACT THE REGION
IN 2006 TO 2007. DURING THIS EVENT ON THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FEBRUARY 2 2007
...TWO EF3 TORNADOES...WITH WINDS UP TO 165 MPH...PUSHED THROUGH SUMTER...LAKE...AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES KILLING 21 PEOPLE.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/
See also:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/enso/mlbnino.html
Of note is that the last El Ninos had EF-3 tornadoes for FL.

[Jim Hawkins]

Welp, I'm about as scientific on this thought, as saying that the yin/yang effect will play out, and 2010 will be more active than 2009. However 2010 may NOT be more active, and 2009 will at a minimum be equal to 2010. Regardless, I would say the chances are that 2010 won't be worse than 2009.
For a first year chaser like me, 2009 was perhaps the WORST year one could start in (and I would have had no way of knowing that). However, as a learning environment, the lack of tor's did allow me to focus on the basics of examining visuals, using radar, and maps/GPS. Overall, for this newbie, it was a good year in this way, and I hope 2010 will be more active, yet still a learning environment.

[Paul Knightley]

You can tell the winter is on its way when folks start speculating about the season this early! FWIW seasonal forecasting has a very low skill score, so whatever might be indicated is just, essentially, guesswork!

[Andrew.Gardonia]

Some interesting facts.

When I was in the military in 2002, I was stationed at Ft. Eustis, VA (close to Norfolk and Newport News) for AIT. We were under a Hurricane Watch for a Hurricane (I believer it was Hurricane Kyle that passed a 100-150 miles east of us, but I remember it dumped a crap load of rain in Oct or Nov for days on end, and barely missed us).

Anyhow, that following spring when I was out of the military and back home in KC was one of the worst years for tornadoes in the KC Metro Area, as my dad's work in Riverside, MO was decimated by a true F4 (not EF4) on Sunday May 4, 2003 of which one of the largest outbreaks for tornadoes (401 Reported) occurred over a week long period (May 3 - May 11) extended over 19 States, and 1 Canadian Province.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_200...break_sequence

You can see pictures here of what a True F4 does to a commercial trucking company.
http://viewmorepics.myspace.com/inde...lbumId=1034440

So this late Hurricane in the Gulf right now, is very promising for what's in store to come next year.

EDIT: Interesting tidbit of info....2002 was an El-Nino year, just as 2009 is!!!!!!

http://archives.cnn.com/2002/WEATHER.../el.nino.2002/

I know weather trends are never "identical" but weather patterns do tend to repeat themselves, so I think one would be fairly safe to say we could some pretty severe outbreaks in spring 2010.

I hope it's as busy as 2003 was, because that was one helluva year. I hope it's in the same time range (May 3 - 31st) which would be ideal for me because I'll be out of school till June 1st.